Belgian Pro League
Yellow-Red Mechelen vs Sint Truiden prediction
4 – 3
Full-timeOutcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Yellow-Red Mechelen
30%
Draw
30%
Sint Truiden
40%
Actual result: Yellow-Red Mechelen 4 – 3 Sint Truiden · Yellow-Red Mechelen winJarvis gave this outcome: 30%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Yellow-Red Mechelen, negative favours Sint Truiden) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Yellow-Red Mechelen - Sint Truiden)-0.20
Expected total goals2.71
Expected goals Yellow-Red Mechelen / Sint Truiden1.25 / 1.46
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.9% / 43.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.4%
Over 2.5 goals 51.0%
Over 3.5 goals 28.9%
First half
First-half result (Yellow-Red Mechelen / draw / Sint Truiden)24.5% / 45.1% / 30.4%
A goal in the first half68.7%
Two or more in the first half36.3%
Half-time then full-time
Sint Truiden lead at half-time then Sint Truiden win24.1%
Level at half-time then draw18.5%
Yellow-Red Mechelen lead at half-time then Yellow-Red Mechelen win18.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Yellow-Red Mechelen's side
Yellow-Red Mechelen −2.09.3%
Yellow-Red Mechelen −1.7511.6%
Yellow-Red Mechelen −1.513.9%
Yellow-Red Mechelen −1.2518.0%
Yellow-Red Mechelen −1.022.2%
Yellow-Red Mechelen −0.7526.3%
Yellow-Red Mechelen −0.530.5%
Yellow-Red Mechelen −0.2537.9%
Yellow-Red Mechelen draw no bet (0.0)45.3%
Yellow-Red Mechelen +0.2552.7%
Yellow-Red Mechelen +0.560.1%
Yellow-Red Mechelen +0.7565.0%
Yellow-Red Mechelen +1.069.9%
Yellow-Red Mechelen +1.579.8%
Yellow-Red Mechelen +2.086.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Yellow-Red Mechelen win3.28
Draw3.38
Sint Truiden win2.51
Over 2.51.96
Under 2.52.04
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Yellow-Red Mechelen wins by more than 1 goals14%
Sint Truiden wins by more than 1 goals20%