UEFA Champions League

Atletico Madrid vs Man Utd prediction

Atletico Madrid

02:00, 14/10

Kicking off soon

Man Utd

Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling

Offline

Atletico Madrid

49%

Draw

25%

Man Utd

26%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Atletico Madrid, negative favours Man Utd) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Atletico Madrid - Man Utd)+0.52

Expected total goals2.96

Expected goals Atletico Madrid / Man Utd1.74 / 1.22

Both teams to score (yes / no)59.0% / 41.0%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 80.4%

Over 2.5 goals 56.8%

Over 3.5 goals 34.4%

First half

First-half result (Atletico Madrid / draw / Man Utd)36.8% / 40.8% / 22.4%

A goal in the first half72.7%

Two or more in the first half39.4%

Half-time then full-time

Atletico Madrid lead at half-time then Atletico Madrid win30.3%

Level at half-time then Atletico Madrid win16.3%

Man Utd lead at half-time then Man Utd win14.9%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Atletico Madrid's side

Atletico Madrid −2.019.4%

Atletico Madrid −1.7523.2%

Atletico Madrid −1.527.0%

Atletico Madrid −1.2532.4%

Atletico Madrid −1.037.9%

Atletico Madrid −0.7543.3%

Atletico Madrid −0.548.8%

Atletico Madrid −0.2555.1%

Atletico Madrid draw no bet (0.0)61.4%

Atletico Madrid +0.2567.7%

Atletico Madrid +0.574.1%

Atletico Madrid +0.7577.8%

Atletico Madrid +1.081.6%

Atletico Madrid +1.589.1%

Atletico Madrid +2.092.8%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Atletico Madrid win2.05

Draw3.95

Man Utd win3.86

Over 2.51.76

Under 2.52.32

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Atletico Madrid wins by more than 1 goals27%

Man Utd wins by more than 1 goals11%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory