Outcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
ESTAC Troyes
25%
Draw
26%
Marseille
48%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours ESTAC Troyes, negative favours Marseille) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (ESTAC Troyes - Marseille)-0.52
Expected total goals2.92
Expected goals ESTAC Troyes / Marseille1.20 / 1.72
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.7% / 41.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.2%
Over 2.5 goals 55.9%
Over 3.5 goals 33.5%
First half
First-half result (ESTAC Troyes / draw / Marseille)21.8% / 41.9% / 36.2%
A goal in the first half71.8%
Two or more in the first half39.2%
Half-time then full-time
Marseille lead at half-time then Marseille win30.0%
Level at half-time then Marseille win16.5%
Level at half-time then draw15.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from ESTAC Troyes's side
ESTAC Troyes −2.07.1%
ESTAC Troyes −1.758.9%
ESTAC Troyes −1.510.7%
ESTAC Troyes −1.2514.4%
ESTAC Troyes −1.018.0%
ESTAC Troyes −0.7521.7%
ESTAC Troyes −0.525.3%
ESTAC Troyes −0.2531.9%
ESTAC Troyes draw no bet (0.0)38.5%
ESTAC Troyes +0.2545.1%
ESTAC Troyes +0.551.7%
ESTAC Troyes +0.7557.0%
ESTAC Troyes +1.062.4%
ESTAC Troyes +1.573.1%
ESTAC Troyes +2.080.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
ESTAC Troyes win3.95
Draw3.79
Marseille win2.07
Over 2.51.79
Under 2.52.27
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
ESTAC Troyes wins by more than 1 goals11%
Marseille wins by more than 1 goals27%
Corners
Expected total corners9.0
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%