Outcome probability
Updating live as the match unfolds
LiveOffline
Norwich
38%
Draw
27%
Southampton
34%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Norwich, negative favours Southampton) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Norwich - Southampton)+0.09
Expected total goals3.08
Expected goals Norwich / Southampton1.58 / 1.49
Both teams to score (yes / no)63.2% / 36.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.8%
Over 2.5 goals 59.4%
Over 3.5 goals 37.0%
First half
First-half result (Norwich / draw / Southampton)30.2% / 42.1% / 27.7%
A goal in the first half73.2%
Two or more in the first half42.0%
Half-time then full-time
Norwich lead at half-time then Norwich win23.2%
Southampton lead at half-time then Southampton win20.6%
Level at half-time then draw16.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Norwich's side
Norwich −2.013.9%
Norwich −1.7516.9%
Norwich −1.519.9%
Norwich −1.2524.5%
Norwich −1.029.1%
Norwich −0.7533.8%
Norwich −0.538.4%
Norwich −0.2545.2%
Norwich draw no bet (0.0)52.0%
Norwich +0.2558.8%
Norwich +0.565.5%
Norwich +0.7569.9%
Norwich +1.074.2%
Norwich +1.582.9%
Norwich +2.088.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Norwich win2.61
Draw3.68
Southampton win2.90
Over 2.51.68
Under 2.52.46
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Norwich wins by more than 1 goals20%
Southampton wins by more than 1 goals17%
Probability trajectory
Match events
- 15′Yellow cardRyan Manning
- 22′SubstitutionCaspar Jander on, Flynn Downes off
- 26′Yellow cardZach Abbott
- 45′SubstitutionWelington on, Ryan Manning off
- 45′SubstitutionJames Bree on, Zach Abbott off
- 48′Yellow cardJacob Wright
Match statistics
NorwichSouthampton
47Possession53
0.63Expected goals (xG)0.64
4Total shots7
2Shots on target1
0Corners1
6Fouls7
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
0Offsides2
1Saves2
79Pass accuracy (%)85
Norwich vs Southampton lineups
NorwichFormation 4-2-3-1
Coach: P. Clement
| 32 | D. Grimshaw | GK |
| 3 | J. Stacey | DF |
| 15 | Ruairi McConville | DF |
| 33 | J. Cordoba | DF |
| 14 | B. Chrisene | DF |
| 16 | Jacob Wright | MF |
| 7 | P. Mattsson | MF |
| 11 | A. Brooks | MF |
| 20 | A. Ben Slimane | MF |
| 29 | O. Schwartau | MF |
| 30 | M. Kvistgaarden | FW |
| 17 | A. Crnac | FW |
| 6 | H. Darling | DF |
| 26 | S. Field | MF |
| 25 | P. Maghoma | MF |
| 40 | C. Ansen | GK |
| 12 | L. Mahovo | DF |
| 24 | J. Makama | FW |
| 49 | A. Musaba | FW |
| 13 | D. Yongwa | DF |
SouthamptonFormation 4-2-3-1Coach: Tonda Eckert
| 1 | Daniel Peretz | GK |
| 6 | Z. Abbott | DF |
| 5 | J. Stephens | DF |
| 13 | K. Schlotterbeck | DF |
| 3 | R. Manning | DF |
| 30 | J. Ward-Prowse | MF |
| 4 | F. Downes | MF |
| 27 | K. Matsuki | MF |
| 10 | F. Azaz | MF |
| 23 | S. Edozie | MF |
| 11 | L. Dobbin | FW |
| 14 | J. Bree | DF |
| 18 | T. Fellows | MF |
| 8 | C. Jander | MF |
| 9 | C. Larin | FW |
| 25 | G. Long | GK |
| 28 | D. Mubama | FW |
| 7 | Leo Scienza | MF |
| 34 | Welington | DF |
| 15 | N. Wood-Gordon | DF |
Norwich vs Southampton injury report and team news
Norwich
- A. AhmedOut · Knee Injury
- P. A. DialloOut · Injury
- L. MahovoOut · Ankle Injury
- K. McLeanOut · Injury
- M. TopicOut · Knee Injury
- M. ToureOut · Shoulder Injury
Southampton- C. BraggOut · Red Card
Norwich vs Southampton team form
NorwichLLLLW
| 10/10/2026 | Swansea (away) | 1–2 |
| 20/09/2026 | Bolton (home) | 3–4 |
| 17/09/2026 | Manchester City (away) | 0–5 |
| 12/09/2026 | Middlesbrough (away) | 3–4 |
| 09/09/2026 | Birmingham (home) | 2–1 |
SouthamptonWLWWD| 11/10/2026 | Portsmouth (home) | 1–0 |
| 19/09/2026 | Wrexham (away) | 1–2 |
| 12/09/2026 | Bristol City (home) | 4–1 |
| 08/09/2026 | Swansea (home) | 3–1 |
| 05/09/2026 | Lincoln (away) | 1–1 |
Norwich vs Southampton head to head (H2H)
Head to head record, last 10 meetings: Norwich won 2, drew 2, lost 6. Norwich scored 10 and conceded 19 goals.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/03/2026 | Southampton | 1–0 | Norwich |
| 13/12/2025 | Norwich | 2–1 | Southampton |
| 26/08/2025 | Norwich | 0–3 | Southampton |
| 01/01/2024 | Norwich | 1–1 | Southampton |
| 12/08/2023 | Southampton | 4–4 | Norwich |
| 25/02/2022 | Southampton | 2–0 | Norwich |
| 20/11/2021 | Norwich | 2–1 | Southampton |
| 19/06/2020 | Norwich | 0–3 | Southampton |
| 04/12/2019 | Southampton | 2–1 | Norwich |
| 18/01/2017 | Southampton | 1–0 | Norwich |
Match information
- Referee
- Steve Martin
- Venue
- Carrow Road, Norwich
- Round
- 10