Outcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Roma
25%
Draw
25%
Real Madrid
50%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Roma, negative favours Real Madrid) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Roma - Real Madrid)-0.61
Expected total goals3.18
Expected goals Roma / Real Madrid1.28 / 1.89
Both teams to score (yes / no)62.6% / 37.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.7%
Over 2.5 goals 61.5%
Over 3.5 goals 39.2%
First half
First-half result (Roma / draw / Real Madrid)21.9% / 40.0% / 38.1%
A goal in the first half74.7%
Two or more in the first half43.2%
Half-time then full-time
Real Madrid lead at half-time then Real Madrid win31.8%
Level at half-time then Real Madrid win16.5%
Roma lead at half-time then Roma win14.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Roma's side
Roma −2.07.2%
Roma −1.759.0%
Roma −1.510.8%
Roma −1.2514.3%
Roma −1.017.8%
Roma −0.7521.3%
Roma −0.524.8%
Roma −0.2531.0%
Roma draw no bet (0.0)37.2%
Roma +0.2543.3%
Roma +0.549.5%
Roma +0.7554.8%
Roma +1.060.1%
Roma +1.570.6%
Roma +2.078.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Roma win4.04
Draw4.04
Real Madrid win1.98
Over 2.51.63
Under 2.52.60
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Roma wins by more than 1 goals11%
Real Madrid wins by more than 1 goals29%