UEFA Champions League

Shakhtar vs AEK Athens prediction

Shakhtar

02:00, 15/10

GMT+7

Kicking off soon

AEK Athens

Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling

Offline

Shakhtar

35%

Draw

30%

AEK Athens

35%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Shakhtar, negative favours AEK Athens) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Shakhtar - AEK Athens)-0.01

Expected total goals2.57

Expected goals Shakhtar / AEK Athens1.28 / 1.29

Both teams to score (yes / no)53.8% / 46.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 74.1%

Over 2.5 goals 47.4%

Over 3.5 goals 25.7%

First half

First-half result (Shakhtar / draw / AEK Athens)27.2% / 45.3% / 27.4%

A goal in the first half67.3%

Two or more in the first half33.4%

Half-time then full-time

AEK Athens lead at half-time then AEK Athens win20.9%

Shakhtar lead at half-time then Shakhtar win20.7%

Level at half-time then draw18.5%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Shakhtar's side

Shakhtar −2.010.8%

Shakhtar −1.7513.5%

Shakhtar −1.516.1%

Shakhtar −1.2520.8%

Shakhtar −1.025.6%

Shakhtar −0.7530.3%

Shakhtar −0.535.1%

Shakhtar −0.2542.5%

Shakhtar draw no bet (0.0)49.8%

Shakhtar +0.2557.2%

Shakhtar +0.564.6%

Shakhtar +0.7569.4%

Shakhtar +1.074.2%

Shakhtar +1.583.7%

Shakhtar +2.089.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Shakhtar win2.85

Draw3.39

AEK Athens win2.83

Over 2.52.11

Under 2.51.90

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Shakhtar wins by more than 1 goals16%

AEK Athens wins by more than 1 goals16%

Corners

Expected total corners9.1

6.5+ corners in the match56%

Cards

Expected total cards3.2

2.5+ cards in the match39%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory