Outcome probability
Updating live as the match unfolds
LiveOffline
QPR
57%
Draw
26%
Derby
17%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours QPR, negative favours Derby) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (QPR - Derby)+0.86
Expected total goals2.53
Expected goals QPR / Derby1.69 / 0.84
Both teams to score (yes / no)47.3% / 52.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 73.0%
Over 2.5 goals 46.4%
Over 3.5 goals 24.9%
First half
First-half result (QPR / draw / Derby)40.5% / 43.6% / 15.8%
A goal in the first half67.1%
Two or more in the first half32.4%
Half-time then full-time
QPR lead at half-time then QPR win35.6%
Level at half-time then QPR win19.5%
Level at half-time then draw16.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from QPR's side
QPR −2.023.2%
QPR −1.7527.7%
QPR −1.532.1%
QPR −1.2538.3%
QPR −1.044.4%
QPR −0.7550.5%
QPR −0.556.7%
QPR −0.2563.2%
QPR draw no bet (0.0)69.7%
QPR +0.2576.2%
QPR +0.582.7%
QPR +0.7585.6%
QPR +1.088.5%
QPR +1.594.3%
QPR +2.096.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
QPR win1.76
Draw3.84
Derby win5.78
Over 2.52.15
Under 2.51.87
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
QPR wins by more than 1 goals32%
Derby wins by more than 1 goals6%
Probability trajectory
Match events
- 12′SubstitutionRyan Nyambe on, Sondre Langas off
- 18′GoalAlfie Lloyd (assist: Boy Kemper)
- 22′Goal (Penalty)Nicolas Madsen
- 24′Yellow cardD. Ozoh
- 28′Yellow cardJohn Eustace
- 44′Yellow cardSammie Szmodics
- 45′GoalHarvey Vale
- 45′SubstitutionLewis Travis on, D. Ozoh off
- 45′SubstitutionHenrik Wendel Meister on, Mohammed Fuseini off
Match statistics
QPRDerby
56Possession44
1.09Expected goals (xG)0.13
6Total shots3
5Shots on target1
1Corners0
4Fouls6
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
0Offsides1
1Saves2
84Pass accuracy (%)75
QPR vs Derby lineups
QPRFormation 4-2-3-1Coach: Julien Stephan
| 1 | P. Charles | GK |
| 2 | K. Adamson | DF |
| 3 | J. Dunne | DF |
| 5 | R. Edwards | DF |
| 12 | B. Kemper | DF |
| 24 | N. Madsen | MF |
| 18 | G. Kamara | MF |
| 11 | P. Smyth | MF |
| 20 | H. Vale | MF |
| 15 | A. Lloyd | MF |
| 26 | Rayan Jawad Kolli | FW |
| 23 | I. Alemayehu | MF |
| 6 | J. Clarke-Salter | DF |
| 22 | R. Kone | FW |
| 27 | A. Mbengue | DF |
| 4 | L. Morrison | DF |
| 17 | K. Poku | MF |
| 40 | J. Varane | MF |
| 13 | C. Ward | GK |
| 33 | Leon Scarlett | FW |
DerbyFormation 4-2-3-1Coach: J. Eustace
| 31 | J. Vickers | GK |
| 23 | J. Ward | DF |
| 6 | S. Langas | DF |
| 28 | D. Sanderson | DF |
| 26 | R. Hedges | DF |
| 4 | D. Ozoh | MF |
| 20 | A. Mowatt | MF |
| 16 | M. Fuseini | MF |
| 8 | B. Clark | MF |
| 11 | S. Szmodics | MF |
| 9 | C. Morris | FW |
| 10 | R. Brewster | FW |
| 29 | O. Fraulo | MF |
| 19 | H. Meister | FW |
| 24 | R. Nyambe | DF |
| 12 | R. O'Donnell | GK |
| 15 | L. Salvesen | FW |
| 27 | L. Travis | MF |
| 33 | C. Blackett-Taylor | FW |
| 13 | F. Bilbija | MF |
QPR vs Derby injury report and team news
QPR- I. ChairOut · Muscle Injury
- K. DembeleOut · Knee Injury
Derby- P. AgyemangOut · Achilles Tendon Injury
- M. ClarkeOut · Calf Injury
- C. ForsythOut · Knee Injury
- D. MurkinOut · Hamstring Injury
- C. TaylorOut · Injury
- J. Widell ZetterstromOut · Knee Injury
QPR vs Derby team form
QPRDDDDL| 09/10/2026 | West Ham (away) | 1–1 |
| 19/09/2026 | Preston (home) | 2–2 |
| 12/09/2026 | West Brom (away) | 1–1 |
| 09/09/2026 | Charlton (away) | 0–0 |
| 05/09/2026 | Middlesbrough (home) | 0–1 |
DerbyDDLLL| 10/10/2026 | Wrexham (home) | 1–1 |
| 19/09/2026 | Burnley (away) | 1–1 |
| 12/09/2026 | Birmingham (home) | 1–2 |
| 09/09/2026 | West Brom (home) | 0–1 |
| 05/09/2026 | West Ham (away) | 0–3 |
QPR vs Derby head to head (H2H)
Head to head record, last 10 meetings: QPR won 5, drew 1, lost 4. QPR scored 13 and conceded 10 goals.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2026 | QPR | 2–3 | Derby |
| 25/10/2025 | Derby | 1–0 | QPR |
| 14/02/2025 | QPR | 4–0 | Derby |
| 05/10/2024 | Derby | 2–0 | QPR |
| 18/04/2022 | QPR | 1–0 | Derby |
| 29/11/2021 | Derby | 1–2 | QPR |
| 23/01/2021 | QPR | 0–1 | Derby |
| 04/11/2020 | Derby | 0–1 | QPR |
| 25/02/2020 | QPR | 2–1 | Derby |
| 30/11/2019 | Derby | 1–1 | QPR |
Match information
- Referee
- Matthew Corlett
- Venue
- Loftus Road, London
- Round
- 10