Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
River Plate
46%
Rosario Central
22%
Actual result: River Plate 0 – 1 Rosario Central · Rosario Central winJarvis gave this outcome: 22%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours River Plate, negative favours Rosario Central) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (River Plate - Rosario Central)+0.48
Expected total goals2.03
Expected goals River Plate / Rosario Central1.26 / 0.77
Both teams to score (yes / no)39.8% / 60.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 61.5%
Over 2.5 goals 33.1%
Over 3.5 goals 14.8%
First half
First-half result (River Plate / draw / Rosario Central)32.5% / 50.1% / 17.4%
A goal in the first half59.0%
Two or more in the first half24.0%
Half-time then full-time
River Plate lead at half-time then River Plate win27.7%
Level at half-time then draw22.6%
Level at half-time then River Plate win18.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from River Plate's side
River Plate −2.014.7%
River Plate −1.7518.3%
River Plate −1.521.8%
River Plate −1.2528.0%
River Plate −1.034.1%
River Plate −0.7540.3%
River Plate −0.546.4%
River Plate −0.2554.4%
River Plate draw no bet (0.0)62.5%
River Plate +0.2570.5%
River Plate +0.578.5%
River Plate +0.7582.1%
River Plate +1.085.8%
River Plate +1.593.1%
River Plate +2.095.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
River Plate win2.15
Draw3.12
Rosario Central win4.65
Over 2.53.02
Under 2.51.49
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
River Plate wins by more than 1 goals22%
Rosario Central wins by more than 1 goals7%
