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German Bundesliga

Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig prediction

Bayern Munich
23:30, 17/10
GMT+7
Kicking off soon
RB Leipzig

Quick preview

Bayern Munich meet RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga, kick-off 23:30 on 17/10 (GMT+7). In the table, Bayern Munich are 3rd (11 points from 5 games) and RB Leipzig are 5th (9 points from 5 games). Jarvis gives Bayern Munich a 80% chance to win, 12% for a draw and 9% for RB Leipzig; the score Jarvis predicts is 3-1. Jarvis expects 4.8 goals in the match: both teams score with 69%, 3 or more goals with 86%.

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Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Bayern Munich
80%
Draw
12%
RB Leipzig
9%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Bayern Munich, negative favours RB Leipzig) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Bayern Munich - RB Leipzig)+2.33
Expected total goals4.79
Expected goals Bayern Munich / RB Leipzig3.56 / 1.23
Both teams to score (yes / no)69.0% / 31.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 95.4%
Over 2.5 goals 85.6%
Over 3.5 goals 70.4%
First half
First-half result (Bayern Munich / draw / RB Leipzig)62.3% / 25.9% / 11.8%
A goal in the first half87.7%
Two or more in the first half64.2%
Half-time then full-time
Bayern Munich lead at half-time then Bayern Munich win58.6%
Level at half-time then Bayern Munich win17.3%
Level at half-time then draw5.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Bayern Munich's side
Bayern Munich −2.054.5%
Bayern Munich −1.7559.1%
Bayern Munich −1.563.8%
Bayern Munich −1.2567.8%
Bayern Munich −1.071.8%
Bayern Munich −0.7575.9%
Bayern Munich −0.579.9%
Bayern Munich −0.2582.8%
Bayern Munich draw no bet (0.0)85.7%
Bayern Munich +0.2588.6%
Bayern Munich +0.591.4%
Bayern Munich +0.7592.8%
Bayern Munich +1.094.1%
Bayern Munich +1.596.8%
Bayern Munich +2.098.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Bayern Munich win1.25
Draw8.65
RB Leipzig win11.69
Over 2.51.17
Under 2.56.96

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Bayern Munich wins by more than 1 goals63%
RB Leipzig wins by more than 1 goals3%
Corners
Expected total corners10.6
6.5+ corners in the match50%

Probability trajectory

Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig injury report and team news

Bayern Munich
  • T. BuchmannOut · Knee Injury
  • J. MusialaOut · Muscle Injury
  • M. NeuerDoubtful · Foot Injury
RB Leipzig
  • C. BaumgartnerOut · Thigh Injury
  • M. GuiuOut · Hamstring Injury
  • A. OuedraogoOut · Shoulder Injury

Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig team form

Bayern MunichDDWWW
Last 5 matches
13/10/2026Viking (away)3–3
10/10/2026FC Augsburg (away)2–2
18/09/2026Union Berlin (home)7–0
13/09/2026SV Elversberg (away)2–1
10/09/2026Bodo/Glimt (home)5–0
RB LeipzigWWLWL
Last 5 matches
13/10/2026PSV Eindhoven (home)1–0
10/10/2026Eintracht Frankfurt (home)6–0
20/09/2026Bayer Leverkusen (away)0–2
13/09/2026Hamburger SV (home)5–0
10/09/2026Como (away)1–4

Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig head to head (H2H)

Head to head record, last 10 meetings: Bayern Munich won 6, drew 2, lost 2. Bayern Munich scored 29 and conceded 15 goals.

DateHomeScoreAway
15/08/2026Bayern Munchen3–1RB Leipzig
11/02/2026Bayern Munchen2–0RB Leipzig
17/01/2026RB Leipzig1–5Bayern Munchen
22/08/2025Bayern Munchen6–0RB Leipzig
03/05/2025RB Leipzig3–3Bayern Munchen
20/12/2024Bayern Munchen5–1RB Leipzig
24/02/2024Bayern Munich2–1RB Leipzig
30/09/2023RB Leipzig2–2Bayern Munich
12/08/2023Bayern Munich0–3RB Leipzig
20/05/2023Bayern Munich1–3RB Leipzig

Match information

Referee
Tobias Stieler
Venue
Allianz Arena, Munich
Round
6

Next fixtures of both teams

Bayern Munich
  • vs ArsenalThu 22/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
  • vs SC Freiburg (away)Sun 25/10, 23:30 GMT+7 · Bundesliga 26-27
RB Leipzig
  • vs Real Madrid (away)Thu 22/10, 02:00 GMT+7 · Champions League 26-27
  • vs SV ElversbergSat 24/10, 20:30 GMT+7 · Bundesliga 26-27

Other matches on 17/10 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Bundesliga table, latest

#TeamPGDPts
1SC Freiburg5+1013
2Borussia Dortmund5+713
3Bayern Munich5+1211
4Bayer Leverkusen5+610
5RB Leipzig5+109
6FC Augsburg5+58

See the full Bundesliga table