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English Premier League

Newcastle vs Aston Villa prediction

Newcastle
23:30, 17/10
GMT+7
Kicking off soon
Aston Villa

Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Newcastle
43%
Draw
27%
Aston Villa
30%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Newcastle, negative favours Aston Villa) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Newcastle - Aston Villa)+0.31
Expected total goals3.18
Expected goals Newcastle / Aston Villa1.75 / 1.43
Both teams to score (yes / no)64.6% / 35.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 84.4%
Over 2.5 goals 61.5%
Over 3.5 goals 39.2%
First half
First-half result (Newcastle / draw / Aston Villa)33.3% / 41.9% / 24.9%
A goal in the first half74.0%
Two or more in the first half43.9%
Half-time then full-time
Newcastle lead at half-time then Newcastle win26.7%
Aston Villa lead at half-time then Aston Villa win17.7%
Level at half-time then draw15.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Newcastle's side
Newcastle −2.017.2%
Newcastle −1.7520.6%
Newcastle −1.524.0%
Newcastle −1.2528.9%
Newcastle −1.033.7%
Newcastle −0.7538.5%
Newcastle −0.543.3%
Newcastle −0.2550.0%
Newcastle draw no bet (0.0)56.7%
Newcastle +0.2563.4%
Newcastle +0.570.1%
Newcastle +0.7574.0%
Newcastle +1.077.9%
Newcastle +1.585.6%
Newcastle +2.090.2%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Newcastle win2.31
Draw3.73
Aston Villa win3.35
Over 2.51.62
Under 2.52.60

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Newcastle wins by more than 1 goals24%
Aston Villa wins by more than 1 goals14%

Probability trajectory

Newcastle vs Aston Villa team form

NewcastleLWLWD
Last 5 matches
12/10/2026Coventry (away)1–4
19/09/2026Hull City (home)2–1
14/09/2026Leeds (away)1–4
08/09/2026Millwall (away)1–0
05/09/2026Bournemouth (home)2–2
Aston VillaDWWWL
Last 5 matches
10/10/2026Brentford (home)2–2
02/10/2026Sevilla (away)3–1
19/09/2026Tottenham (away)3–2
16/09/2026Coventry (away)3–1
12/09/2026Nottingham Forest (home)1–2

Newcastle vs Aston Villa head to head (H2H)

Head to head record, last 10 meetings: Newcastle won 5, drew 2, lost 3. Newcastle scored 22 and conceded 15 goals.

DateHomeScoreAway
14/02/2026Aston Villa1–3Newcastle
25/01/2026Newcastle0–2Aston Villa
16/08/2025Aston Villa0–0Newcastle
19/04/2025Aston Villa4–1Newcastle
26/12/2024Newcastle3–0Aston Villa
30/01/2024Aston Villa1–3Newcastle
12/08/2023Newcastle5–1Aston Villa
23/07/2023Newcastle3–3Aston Villa
15/04/2023Aston Villa3–0Newcastle
29/10/2022Newcastle4–0Aston Villa

Match information

Venue
St. James' Park, Newcastle
Round
7