Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
AD Ceuta FC
30%
Draw
32%
Valladolid
38%
Actual result: AD Ceuta FC 1 – 1 Valladolid · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 32%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours AD Ceuta FC, negative favours Valladolid) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (AD Ceuta FC - Valladolid)-0.14
Expected total goals2.11
Expected goals AD Ceuta FC / Valladolid0.99 / 1.13
Both teams to score (yes / no)43.4% / 56.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 63.4%
Over 2.5 goals 35.4%
Over 3.5 goals 16.4%
First half
First-half result (AD Ceuta FC / draw / Valladolid)23.2% / 49.2% / 27.6%
A goal in the first half60.7%
Two or more in the first half25.3%
Half-time then full-time
Valladolid lead at half-time then Valladolid win21.9%
Level at half-time then draw21.8%
AD Ceuta FC lead at half-time then AD Ceuta FC win17.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from AD Ceuta FC's side
AD Ceuta FC −2.07.4%
AD Ceuta FC −1.759.5%
AD Ceuta FC −1.511.6%
AD Ceuta FC −1.2516.3%
AD Ceuta FC −1.021.0%
AD Ceuta FC −0.7525.7%
AD Ceuta FC −0.530.4%
AD Ceuta FC −0.2538.4%
AD Ceuta FC draw no bet (0.0)46.4%
AD Ceuta FC +0.2554.3%
AD Ceuta FC +0.562.3%
AD Ceuta FC +0.7567.7%
AD Ceuta FC +1.073.1%
AD Ceuta FC +1.584.0%
AD Ceuta FC +2.089.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
AD Ceuta FC win3.29
Draw3.14
Valladolid win2.65
Over 2.52.83
Under 2.51.55
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
AD Ceuta FC wins by more than 1 goals12%
Valladolid wins by more than 1 goals16%