Spanish La Liga

Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao prediction

Rayo Vallecano

0 – 0

Live · 0'

Athletic Bilbao

Outcome probability

Updating live as the match unfolds

LiveOffline

Rayo Vallecano

34%

Draw

30%

Athletic Bilbao

35%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Rayo Vallecano, negative favours Athletic Bilbao) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao)-0.02

Expected total goals2.51

Expected goals Rayo Vallecano / Athletic Bilbao1.24 / 1.26

Both teams to score (yes / no)52.7% / 47.3%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 73.1%

Over 2.5 goals 45.8%

Over 3.5 goals 24.4%

First half

First-half result (Rayo Vallecano / draw / Athletic Bilbao)26.6% / 46.2% / 27.2%

A goal in the first half66.3%

Two or more in the first half32.5%

Half-time then full-time

Athletic Bilbao lead at half-time then Athletic Bilbao win20.9%

Rayo Vallecano lead at half-time then Rayo Vallecano win20.2%

Level at half-time then draw19.3%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Rayo Vallecano's side

Rayo Vallecano −2.010.4%

Rayo Vallecano −1.7513.0%

Rayo Vallecano −1.515.5%

Rayo Vallecano −1.2520.2%

Rayo Vallecano −1.024.9%

Rayo Vallecano −0.7529.6%

Rayo Vallecano −0.534.3%

Rayo Vallecano −0.2541.9%

Rayo Vallecano draw no bet (0.0)49.5%

Rayo Vallecano +0.2557.1%

Rayo Vallecano +0.564.6%

Rayo Vallecano +0.7569.4%

Rayo Vallecano +1.074.2%

Rayo Vallecano +1.583.8%

Rayo Vallecano +2.089.1%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Rayo Vallecano win2.91

Draw3.30

Athletic Bilbao win2.83

Over 2.52.18

Under 2.51.84

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Rayo Vallecano wins by more than 1 goals16%

Athletic Bilbao wins by more than 1 goals16%

Corners

Expected total corners10.2

6.5+ corners in the match44%

Cards

Expected total cards2.7

2.5+ cards in the match50%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory