English Premier League
Aston Villa vs Brentford prediction
Aston Villa
21:00, 10/10
Kicking off soon
BrentfordOutcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Aston Villa
35%
Draw
29%
Brentford
36%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Aston Villa, negative favours Brentford) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Aston Villa - Brentford)-0.02
Expected total goals2.72
Expected goals Aston Villa / Brentford1.35 / 1.37
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.7% / 43.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.0%
Over 2.5 goals 51.1%
Over 3.5 goals 29.0%
First half
First-half result (Aston Villa / draw / Brentford)27.6% / 44.2% / 28.2%
A goal in the first half69.2%
Two or more in the first half35.9%
Half-time then full-time
Brentford ahead then Brentford win21.5%
Aston Villa ahead then Aston Villa win20.8%
level then draw17.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Quoted from Aston Villa
Aston Villa give 2 trái (−2.0)11.2%
Aston Villa give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)13.9%
Aston Villa give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)16.6%
Aston Villa give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)21.2%
Aston Villa give 1 trái (−1.0)25.8%
Aston Villa give 3/4 trái (−0.75)30.5%
Aston Villa give nửa trái (−0.5)35.1%
Aston Villa give 1/4 trái (−0.25)42.3%
Level ball (0.0)49.5%
Aston Villa receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)56.6%
Aston Villa receive nửa trái (+0.5)63.8%
Aston Villa receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)68.5%
Aston Villa receive 1 trái (+1.0)73.3%
Aston Villa receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)82.7%
Aston Villa receive 2 trái (+2.0)88.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Aston Villa win2.85
Draw3.49
Brentford win2.76
Over 2.51.96
Under 2.52.05
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Aston Villa wins by more than 1 goals17%
Brentford wins by more than 1 goals17%
Corners
Expected total corners10.1
6.5+ corners in the match55%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match41%