English Premier League

Arsenal vs Leeds prediction

Arsenal

18:30, 10/10

Kicking off soon

Leeds

Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling

Offline

Arsenal

70%

Draw

19%

Leeds

11%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Arsenal, negative favours Leeds) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Arsenal - Leeds)+1.36

Expected total goals2.58

Expected goals Arsenal / Leeds1.97 / 0.61

Both teams to score (yes / no)39.0% / 61.0%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 72.5%

Over 2.5 goals 47.8%

Over 3.5 goals 26.1%

First half

First-half result (Arsenal / draw / Leeds)49.9% / 38.6% / 11.5%

A goal in the first half69.2%

Two or more in the first half32.0%

Half-time then full-time

Arsenal ahead then Arsenal win45.9%

level then Arsenal win21.3%

level then draw12.7%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Quoted from Arsenal

Arsenal give 2 trái (−2.0)33.0%

Arsenal give 1 trái 3/4 (−1.75)38.4%

Arsenal give 1 trái rưỡi (−1.5)43.7%

Arsenal give 1 trái 1/4 (−1.25)50.3%

Arsenal give 1 trái (−1.0)56.9%

Arsenal give 3/4 trái (−0.75)63.5%

Arsenal give nửa trái (−0.5)70.1%

Arsenal give 1/4 trái (−0.25)74.8%

Level ball (0.0)79.5%

Arsenal receive 1/4 trái (+0.25)84.2%

Arsenal receive nửa trái (+0.5)88.9%

Arsenal receive 3/4 trái (+0.75)91.1%

Arsenal receive 1 trái (+1.0)93.2%

Arsenal receive 1 trái rưỡi (+1.5)97.5%

Arsenal receive 2 trái (+2.0)98.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Arsenal win1.43

Draw5.30

Leeds win9.04

Over 2.52.09

Under 2.51.91

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Arsenal wins by more than 1 goals44%

Leeds wins by more than 1 goals3%

Corners

Expected total corners9.8

6.5+ corners in the match51%

Cards

Expected total cards3.0

2.5+ cards in the match57%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory