Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
AGF
65%
Draw
20%
SonderjyskE
15%
Actual result: AGF 3 – 0 SonderjyskE · AGF winJarvis gave this outcome: 65% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours AGF, negative favours SonderjyskE) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (AGF - SonderjyskE)+1.27
Expected total goals3.32
Expected goals AGF / SonderjyskE2.29 / 1.02
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.0% / 42.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 84.8%
Over 2.5 goals 64.4%
Over 3.5 goals 42.3%
First half
First-half result (AGF / draw / SonderjyskE)48.6% / 35.8% / 15.6%
A goal in the first half76.9%
Two or more in the first half44.6%
Half-time then full-time
AGF lead at half-time then AGF win43.5%
Level at half-time then AGF win19.0%
Level at half-time then draw11.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from AGF's side
AGF −2.033.4%
AGF −1.7538.3%
AGF −1.543.2%
AGF −1.2548.8%
AGF −1.054.3%
AGF −0.7559.9%
AGF −0.565.4%
AGF −0.2570.3%
AGF draw no bet (0.0)75.3%
AGF +0.2580.2%
AGF +0.585.1%
AGF +0.7587.5%
AGF +1.089.9%
AGF +1.594.7%
AGF +2.096.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
AGF win1.53
Draw5.09
SonderjyskE win6.71
Over 2.51.55
Under 2.52.81
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
AGF wins by more than 1 goals43%
SonderjyskE wins by more than 1 goals5%