Outcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Arsenal
79%
Draw
15%
Lille
6%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Arsenal, negative favours Lille) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Arsenal - Lille)+1.85
Expected total goals2.83
Expected goals Arsenal / Lille2.34 / 0.49
Both teams to score (yes / no)34.8% / 65.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.3%
Over 2.5 goals 53.8%
Over 3.5 goals 31.5%
First half
First-half result (Arsenal / draw / Lille)57.6% / 34.5% / 7.9%
A goal in the first half72.2%
Two or more in the first half36.2%
Half-time then full-time
Arsenal lead at half-time then Arsenal win54.9%
Level at half-time then Arsenal win21.9%
Level at half-time then draw9.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Arsenal's side
Arsenal −2.044.1%
Arsenal −1.7549.9%
Arsenal −1.555.7%
Arsenal −1.2561.6%
Arsenal −1.067.5%
Arsenal −0.7573.4%
Arsenal −0.579.2%
Arsenal −0.2582.9%
Arsenal draw no bet (0.0)86.5%
Arsenal +0.2590.1%
Arsenal +0.593.7%
Arsenal +0.7595.0%
Arsenal +1.096.3%
Arsenal +1.598.8%
Arsenal +2.099.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Arsenal win1.26
Draw6.89
Lille win16.00
Over 2.51.86
Under 2.52.16
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Arsenal wins by more than 1 goals56%
Lille wins by more than 1 goals1%
Corners
Expected total corners9.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match39%