UEFA Champions League
Lens vs Sporting Lisbon prediction
23:45, 13/10
GMT+7
Kicking off soonOutcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Lens
37%
Draw
27%
Sporting Lisbon
36%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Lens, negative favours Sporting Lisbon) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Lens - Sporting Lisbon)+0.03
Expected total goals2.98
Expected goals Lens / Sporting Lisbon1.51 / 1.48
Both teams to score (yes / no)61.5% / 38.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.3%
Over 2.5 goals 57.3%
Over 3.5 goals 34.9%
First half
First-half result (Lens / draw / Sporting Lisbon)29.3% / 42.2% / 28.5%
A goal in the first half72.4%
Two or more in the first half40.3%
Half-time then full-time
Lens lead at half-time then Lens win22.2%
Sporting Lisbon lead at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win21.4%
Level at half-time then draw16.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Lens's side
Lens −2.012.8%
Lens −1.7515.7%
Lens −1.518.5%
Lens −1.2523.1%
Lens −1.027.8%
Lens −0.7532.4%
Lens −0.537.0%
Lens −0.2543.8%
Lens draw no bet (0.0)50.6%
Lens +0.2557.4%
Lens +0.564.2%
Lens +0.7568.7%
Lens +1.073.3%
Lens +1.582.3%
Lens +2.087.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Lens win2.70
Draw3.68
Sporting Lisbon win2.79
Over 2.51.74
Under 2.52.34
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Lens wins by more than 1 goals19%
Sporting Lisbon wins by more than 1 goals18%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match39%