Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Ajax
80%
Draw
12%
Excelsior
8%
Actual result: Ajax 2 – 2 Excelsior · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 12%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Ajax, negative favours Excelsior) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Ajax - Excelsior)+2.18
Expected total goals3.97
Expected goals Ajax / Excelsior3.07 / 0.90
Both teams to score (yes / no)56.7% / 43.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 90.8%
Over 2.5 goals 75.8%
Over 3.5 goals 56.1%
First half
First-half result (Ajax / draw / Excelsior)61.6% / 27.9% / 10.5%
A goal in the first half83.1%
Two or more in the first half53.6%
Half-time then full-time
Ajax lead at half-time then Ajax win58.1%
Level at half-time then Ajax win18.6%
Level at half-time then draw6.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Ajax's side
Ajax −2.051.7%
Ajax −1.7556.8%
Ajax −1.561.9%
Ajax −1.2566.5%
Ajax −1.071.1%
Ajax −0.7575.6%
Ajax −0.580.2%
Ajax −0.2583.3%
Ajax draw no bet (0.0)86.3%
Ajax +0.2589.4%
Ajax +0.592.4%
Ajax +0.7593.8%
Ajax +1.095.1%
Ajax +1.597.7%
Ajax +2.098.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Ajax win1.25
Draw8.19
Excelsior win13.22
Over 2.51.32
Under 2.54.13
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Ajax wins by more than 1 goals62%
Excelsior wins by more than 1 goals2%