Outcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Ajax
74%
Draw
15%
NEC Nijmegen
12%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Ajax, negative favours NEC Nijmegen) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Ajax - NEC Nijmegen)+1.78
Expected total goals4.02
Expected goals Ajax / NEC Nijmegen2.90 / 1.12
Both teams to score (yes / no)63.6% / 36.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 91.0%
Over 2.5 goals 76.4%
Over 3.5 goals 57.0%
First half
First-half result (Ajax / draw / NEC Nijmegen)56.6% / 29.2% / 14.2%
A goal in the first half83.5%
Two or more in the first half54.0%
Half-time then full-time
Ajax lead at half-time then Ajax win51.9%
Level at half-time then Ajax win17.9%
Level at half-time then draw7.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Ajax's side
Ajax −2.044.2%
Ajax −1.7549.2%
Ajax −1.554.2%
Ajax −1.2559.1%
Ajax −1.064.0%
Ajax −0.7568.9%
Ajax −0.573.8%
Ajax −0.2577.5%
Ajax draw no bet (0.0)81.1%
Ajax +0.2584.7%
Ajax +0.588.4%
Ajax +0.7590.2%
Ajax +1.092.1%
Ajax +1.595.9%
Ajax +2.097.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Ajax win1.35
Draw6.89
NEC Nijmegen win8.59
Over 2.51.31
Under 2.54.24
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Ajax wins by more than 1 goals54%
NEC Nijmegen wins by more than 1 goals4%