Outcome probability
Updating live as the match unfolds
LiveOffline
Maritimo
9%
Draw
18%
Porto
73%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Maritimo, negative favours Porto) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Maritimo - Porto)-1.52
Expected total goals2.61
Expected goals Maritimo / Porto0.54 / 2.07
Both teams to score (yes / no)36.6% / 63.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 73.4%
Over 2.5 goals 48.5%
Over 3.5 goals 26.7%
First half
First-half result (Maritimo / draw / Porto)9.6% / 38.1% / 52.2%
A goal in the first half69.2%
Two or more in the first half32.8%
Half-time then full-time
Porto lead at half-time then Porto win48.9%
Level at half-time then Porto win22.1%
Level at half-time then draw12.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Maritimo's side
Maritimo −2.01.1%
Maritimo −1.751.5%
Maritimo −1.51.9%
Maritimo −1.253.6%
Maritimo −1.05.2%
Maritimo −0.756.9%
Maritimo −0.58.6%
Maritimo −0.2513.2%
Maritimo draw no bet (0.0)17.7%
Maritimo +0.2522.2%
Maritimo +0.526.7%
Maritimo +0.7533.1%
Maritimo +1.039.5%
Maritimo +1.552.2%
Maritimo +2.063.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Maritimo win11.56
Draw5.55
Porto win1.36
Over 2.52.06
Under 2.51.94
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Maritimo wins by more than 1 goals2%
Porto wins by more than 1 goals48%