Outcome probability
Updating live as the match unfolds
LiveOffline
Toronto FC
48%
Draw
25%
CF Montreal
27%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Toronto FC, negative favours CF Montreal) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Toronto FC - CF Montreal)+0.51
Expected total goals3.16
Expected goals Toronto FC / CF Montreal1.84 / 1.33
Both teams to score (yes / no)62.8% / 37.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.4%
Over 2.5 goals 61.2%
Over 3.5 goals 38.9%
First half
First-half result (Toronto FC / draw / CF Montreal)36.9% / 40.0% / 23.2%
A goal in the first half74.7%
Two or more in the first half42.8%
Half-time then full-time
Toronto FC lead at half-time then Toronto FC win30.2%
Level at half-time then Toronto FC win15.9%
CF Montreal lead at half-time then CF Montreal win15.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Toronto FC's side
Toronto FC −2.020.0%
Toronto FC −1.7523.7%
Toronto FC −1.527.5%
Toronto FC −1.2532.7%
Toronto FC −1.037.9%
Toronto FC −0.7543.2%
Toronto FC −0.548.4%
Toronto FC −0.2554.6%
Toronto FC draw no bet (0.0)60.8%
Toronto FC +0.2567.1%
Toronto FC +0.573.3%
Toronto FC +0.7577.0%
Toronto FC +1.080.7%
Toronto FC +1.588.1%
Toronto FC +2.092.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Toronto FC win2.07
Draw4.02
CF Montreal win3.74
Over 2.51.63
Under 2.52.58
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Toronto FC wins by more than 1 goals27%
CF Montreal wins by more than 1 goals12%