Outcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Monaco
59%
Draw
24%
Toulouse
17%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Monaco, negative favours Toulouse) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Monaco - Toulouse)+1.00
Expected total goals2.96
Expected goals Monaco / Toulouse1.98 / 0.98
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.9% / 45.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 goals 56.7%
Over 3.5 goals 34.3%
First half
First-half result (Monaco / draw / Toulouse)43.5% / 40.1% / 16.4%
A goal in the first half72.5%
Two or more in the first half39.5%
Half-time then full-time
Monaco lead at half-time then Monaco win38.4%
Level at half-time then Monaco win19.1%
Level at half-time then draw14.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Monaco's side
Monaco −2.027.3%
Monaco −1.7531.9%
Monaco −1.536.5%
Monaco −1.2542.2%
Monaco −1.048.0%
Monaco −0.7553.7%
Monaco −0.559.4%
Monaco −0.2565.3%
Monaco draw no bet (0.0)71.2%
Monaco +0.2577.1%
Monaco +0.583.0%
Monaco +0.7585.7%
Monaco +1.088.4%
Monaco +1.593.8%
Monaco +2.096.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Monaco win1.68
Draw4.25
Toulouse win5.87
Over 2.51.76
Under 2.52.31
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Monaco wins by more than 1 goals36%
Toulouse wins by more than 1 goals6%
Corners
Expected total corners9.8
6.5+ corners in the match52%
Cards
Expected total cards3.1
2.5+ cards in the match61%