Outcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Paris St-G
89%
Draw
7%
Le Mans
4%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Paris St-G, negative favours Le Mans) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Paris St-G - Le Mans)+2.84
Expected total goals4.05
Expected goals Paris St-G / Le Mans3.45 / 0.60
Both teams to score (yes / no)43.5% / 56.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 90.8%
Over 2.5 goals 76.9%
Over 3.5 goals 57.6%
First half
First-half result (Paris St-G / draw / Le Mans)70.9% / 22.3% / 6.9%
A goal in the first half84.6%
Two or more in the first half53.7%
Half-time then full-time
Paris St-G lead at half-time then Paris St-G win68.7%
Level at half-time then Paris St-G win17.0%
Level at half-time then draw3.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Paris St-G's side
Paris St-G −2.064.2%
Paris St-G −1.7569.2%
Paris St-G −1.574.1%
Paris St-G −1.2577.9%
Paris St-G −1.081.7%
Paris St-G −0.7585.5%
Paris St-G −0.589.3%
Paris St-G −0.2591.0%
Paris St-G draw no bet (0.0)92.8%
Paris St-G +0.2594.5%
Paris St-G +0.596.3%
Paris St-G +0.7597.0%
Paris St-G +1.097.8%
Paris St-G +1.599.3%
Paris St-G +2.099.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Paris St-G win1.12
Draw14.31
Le Mans win26.93
Over 2.51.30
Under 2.54.33
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Paris St-G wins by more than 1 goals74%
Le Mans wins by more than 1 goals1%
Corners
Expected total corners9.8
6.5+ corners in the match52%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%