Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Ajax
88%
Draw
8%
Willem II
4%
Actual result: Ajax 5 – 1 Willem II · Ajax winJarvis gave this outcome: 88% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Ajax, negative favours Willem II) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Ajax - Willem II)+2.84
Expected total goals4.22
Expected goals Ajax / Willem II3.53 / 0.69
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.4% / 51.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 92.2%
Over 2.5 goals 79.3%
Over 3.5 goals 60.9%
First half
First-half result (Ajax / draw / Willem II)70.1% / 22.8% / 7.1%
A goal in the first half85.3%
Two or more in the first half56.4%
Half-time then full-time
Ajax lead at half-time then Ajax win67.8%
Level at half-time then Ajax win17.2%
Level at half-time then draw4.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Ajax's side
Ajax −2.063.9%
Ajax −1.7568.8%
Ajax −1.573.6%
Ajax −1.2577.3%
Ajax −1.081.0%
Ajax −0.7584.7%
Ajax −0.588.4%
Ajax −0.2590.3%
Ajax draw no bet (0.0)92.2%
Ajax +0.2594.1%
Ajax +0.596.1%
Ajax +0.7596.8%
Ajax +1.097.6%
Ajax +1.599.1%
Ajax +2.099.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Ajax win1.13
Draw13.02
Willem II win25.44
Over 2.51.26
Under 2.54.82
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Ajax wins by more than 1 goals73%
Willem II wins by more than 1 goals1%