Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Al-Hilal
62%
Al Ahli
17%
Actual result: Al-Hilal 3 – 0 Al Ahli · Al-Hilal winJarvis gave this outcome: 62% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Al-Hilal, negative favours Al Ahli) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Al-Hilal - Al Ahli)+1.13
Expected total goals3.28
Expected goals Al-Hilal / Al Ahli2.20 / 1.08
Both teams to score (yes / no)59.6% / 40.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 84.9%
Over 2.5 goals 63.7%
Over 3.5 goals 41.6%
First half
First-half result (Al-Hilal / draw / Al Ahli)45.9% / 37.6% / 16.5%
A goal in the first half76.0%
Two or more in the first half44.6%
Half-time then full-time
Al-Hilal lead at half-time then Al-Hilal win40.7%
Level at half-time then Al-Hilal win18.8%
Level at half-time then draw12.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Al-Hilal's side
Al-Hilal −2.030.6%
Al-Hilal −1.7535.3%
Al-Hilal −1.540.1%
Al-Hilal −1.2545.5%
Al-Hilal −1.051.0%
Al-Hilal −0.7556.5%
Al-Hilal −0.562.0%
Al-Hilal −0.2567.3%
Al-Hilal draw no bet (0.0)72.7%
Al-Hilal +0.2578.1%
Al-Hilal +0.583.5%
Al-Hilal +0.7586.1%
Al-Hilal +1.088.6%
Al-Hilal +1.593.7%
Al-Hilal +2.096.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Al-Hilal win1.61
Draw4.64
Al Ahli win6.06
Over 2.51.57
Under 2.52.75
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Al-Hilal wins by more than 1 goals40%
Al Ahli wins by more than 1 goals6%
