German Bundesliga

Union Berlin vs Dortmund prediction

Union Berlin

20:30, 17/10

GMT+7

Kicking off soon

Dortmund

Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling

Offline

Union Berlin

18%

Draw

22%

Dortmund

60%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Union Berlin, negative favours Dortmund) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Union Berlin - Dortmund)-1.02

Expected total goals3.14

Expected goals Union Berlin / Dortmund1.06 / 2.08

Both teams to score (yes / no)57.8% / 42.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 82.6%

Over 2.5 goals 60.8%

Over 3.5 goals 38.5%

First half

First-half result (Union Berlin / draw / Dortmund)17.6% / 37.6% / 44.8%

A goal in the first half75.1%

Two or more in the first half41.9%

Half-time then full-time

Dortmund lead at half-time then Dortmund win39.2%

Level at half-time then Dortmund win18.4%

Level at half-time then draw12.4%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Union Berlin's side

Union Berlin −2.04.3%

Union Berlin −1.755.5%

Union Berlin −1.56.7%

Union Berlin −1.259.5%

Union Berlin −1.012.4%

Union Berlin −0.7515.2%

Union Berlin −0.518.1%

Union Berlin −0.2523.5%

Union Berlin draw no bet (0.0)28.9%

Union Berlin +0.2534.3%

Union Berlin +0.539.7%

Union Berlin +0.7545.4%

Union Berlin +1.051.1%

Union Berlin +1.562.5%

Union Berlin +2.071.7%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Union Berlin win5.53

Draw4.63

Dortmund win1.66

Over 2.51.64

Under 2.52.55

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Union Berlin wins by more than 1 goals7%

Dortmund wins by more than 1 goals38%

Probability trajectory

Union Berlin vs Dortmund team form

Union BerlinWWLLL

Last 5 matches
10/10/2026	SV Elversberg (home)	1–0	Bundesliga
26/09/2026	HNK Rijeka (away)	1–0	Friendly
18/09/2026	Bayern Munchen (away)	0–7	Bundesliga
11/09/2026	FC Schalke 04 (home)	1–3	Bundesliga
05/09/2026	Bayer Leverkusen (away)	0–4	Bundesliga

DortmundDWWWW

Last 5 matches
09/10/2026	Werder Bremen (home)	2–2	Bundesliga
19/09/2026	VfB Stuttgart (away)	1–0	Bundesliga
12/09/2026	SC Paderborn 07 (home)	3–0	Bundesliga
08/09/2026	Villarreal (home)	3–2	UEFA Champions League
05/09/2026	1899 Hoffenheim (away)	3–2	Bundesliga

Union Berlin vs Dortmund head to head (H2H)

Head to head record, last 10 meetings: Union Berlin won 2, drew 0, lost 8. Union Berlin scored 9 and conceded 28 goals.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
24/01/2026	Union Berlin	0–3	Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
31/08/2025	Borussia Dortmund	3–0	Union Berlin	Bundesliga
22/02/2025	Borussia Dortmund	6–0	Union Berlin	Bundesliga
05/10/2024	Union Berlin	2–1	Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
02/03/2024	Union Berlin	0–2	Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
07/10/2023	Borussia Dortmund	4–2	Union Berlin	Bundesliga
08/04/2023	Borussia Dortmund	2–1	Union Berlin	Bundesliga
16/10/2022	Union Berlin	2–0	Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
13/02/2022	Union Berlin	0–3	Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
19/09/2021	Borussia Dortmund	4–2	Union Berlin	Bundesliga

Match information

Round: 6