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Spanish La Liga

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid prediction

Espanyol
19:00, 17/10
GMT+7
Kicking off soon
Atletico Madrid

Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Espanyol
19%
Draw
26%
Atletico Madrid
55%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Espanyol, negative favours Atletico Madrid) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Espanyol - Atletico Madrid)-0.78
Expected total goals2.56
Expected goals Espanyol / Atletico Madrid0.89 / 1.67
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.8% / 51.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 73.5%
Over 2.5 goals 47.3%
Over 3.5 goals 25.6%
First half
First-half result (Espanyol / draw / Atletico Madrid)17.2% / 43.3% / 39.5%
A goal in the first half67.7%
Two or more in the first half32.8%
Half-time then full-time
Atletico Madrid lead at half-time then Atletico Madrid win34.3%
Level at half-time then Atletico Madrid win18.8%
Level at half-time then draw16.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Espanyol's side
Espanyol −2.04.1%
Espanyol −1.755.3%
Espanyol −1.56.6%
Espanyol −1.259.7%
Espanyol −1.012.8%
Espanyol −0.7516.0%
Espanyol −0.519.1%
Espanyol −0.2525.6%
Espanyol draw no bet (0.0)32.1%
Espanyol +0.2538.6%
Espanyol +0.545.1%
Espanyol +0.7551.2%
Espanyol +1.057.3%
Espanyol +1.569.4%
Espanyol +2.078.0%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Espanyol win5.23
Draw3.85
Atletico Madrid win1.82
Over 2.52.12
Under 2.51.90

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Espanyol wins by more than 1 goals7%
Atletico Madrid wins by more than 1 goals31%

Probability trajectory

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid team form

EspanyolDLLWD
Last 5 matches
09/10/2026Malaga (away)1–1
18/09/2026Elche (home)1–3
15/09/2026Rayo Vallecano (away)1–2
12/09/2026Osasuna (away)2–0
06/09/2026Sevilla (home)1–1
Atletico MadridWWWWW
Last 5 matches
13/10/2026Manchester United (home)2–0
10/10/2026Alaves (away)2–1
20/09/2026Real Madrid (home)2–1
16/09/2026Osasuna (home)4–0
13/09/2026Real Sociedad (away)3–0

Espanyol vs Atletico Madrid head to head (H2H)

Head to head record, last 10 meetings: Espanyol won 1, drew 5, lost 4. Espanyol scored 13 and conceded 18 goals.

DateHomeScoreAway
21/02/2026Atletico Madrid4–2Espanyol
17/08/2025Espanyol2–1Atletico Madrid
29/03/2025Espanyol1–1Atletico Madrid
28/08/2024Atletico Madrid0–0Espanyol
24/05/2023Espanyol3–3Atletico Madrid
06/11/2022Atletico Madrid1–1Espanyol
17/04/2022Atletico Madrid2–1Espanyol
12/09/2021Espanyol1–2Atletico Madrid
01/03/2020Espanyol1–1Atletico Madrid
10/11/2019Atletico Madrid3–1Espanyol

Match information

Venue
RCDE Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat
Round
9