Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Albania
59%
Draw
25%
Belarus
16%
Actual result: Albania 2 – 0 Belarus · Albania winJarvis gave this outcome: 59% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Albania, negative favours Belarus) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Albania - Belarus)+0.94
Expected total goals2.43
Expected goals Albania / Belarus1.69 / 0.74
Both teams to score (yes / no)43.4% / 56.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.4%
Over 2.5 goals 43.8%
Over 3.5 goals 22.7%
First half
First-half result (Albania / draw / Belarus)41.9% / 43.6% / 14.5%
A goal in the first half66.0%
Two or more in the first half30.3%
Half-time then full-time
Albania lead at half-time then Albania win37.3%
Level at half-time then Albania win20.2%
Level at half-time then draw16.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Albania's side
Albania −2.024.3%
Albania −1.7529.0%
Albania −1.533.6%
Albania −1.2540.0%
Albania −1.046.4%
Albania −0.7552.9%
Albania −0.559.3%
Albania −0.2565.6%
Albania draw no bet (0.0)71.9%
Albania +0.2578.1%
Albania +0.584.4%
Albania +0.7587.2%
Albania +1.089.9%
Albania +1.595.4%
Albania +2.097.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Albania win1.69
Draw3.98
Belarus win6.42
Over 2.52.28
Under 2.51.78
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Albania wins by more than 1 goals34%
Belarus wins by more than 1 goals5%