Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Albania
97%
Draw
3%
San Marino
0%
Actual result: Albania 2 – 1 San Marino · Albania winJarvis gave this outcome: 97% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Albania, negative favours San Marino) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Albania - San Marino)+3.87
Expected total goals4.25
Expected goals Albania / San Marino4.06 / 0.19
Both teams to score (yes / no)17.0% / 83.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 92.7%
Over 2.5 goals 79.6%
Over 3.5 goals 61.4%
First half
First-half result (Albania / draw / San Marino)81.0% / 18.1% / 0.9%
A goal in the first half84.8%
Two or more in the first half57.4%
Half-time then full-time
Albania lead at half-time then Albania win80.8%
Level at half-time then Albania win15.6%
Level at half-time then draw2.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Albania's side
Albania −2.081.0%
Albania −1.7584.8%
Albania −1.588.5%
Albania −1.2590.5%
Albania −1.092.6%
Albania −0.7594.6%
Albania −0.596.6%
Albania −0.2597.4%
Albania draw no bet (0.0)98.2%
Albania +0.2599.0%
Albania +0.599.8%
Albania +0.7599.8%
Albania +1.099.9%
Albania +1.5100.0%
Albania +2.0100.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Albania win1.03
Draw31.45
San Marino win498.01
Over 2.51.26
Under 2.54.91
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Albania wins by more than 1 goals88%
San Marino wins by more than 1 goals0%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%