Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Aldosivi
28%
Draw
34%
Atl Tucuman
39%
Actual result: Aldosivi 1 – 0 Atl Tucuman · Aldosivi winJarvis gave this outcome: 28%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Aldosivi, negative favours Atl Tucuman) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Aldosivi - Atl Tucuman)-0.22
Expected total goals2.03
Expected goals Aldosivi / Atl Tucuman0.91 / 1.12
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.8% / 58.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 61.8%
Over 2.5 goals 33.1%
Over 3.5 goals 14.8%
First half
First-half result (Aldosivi / draw / Atl Tucuman)21.2% / 50.8% / 28.0%
A goal in the first half58.9%
Two or more in the first half24.2%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw23.4%
Atl Tucuman lead at half-time then Atl Tucuman win22.7%
Level at half-time then Atl Tucuman win15.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Aldosivi's side
Aldosivi −2.06.4%
Aldosivi −1.758.2%
Aldosivi −1.510.1%
Aldosivi −1.2514.5%
Aldosivi −1.018.8%
Aldosivi −0.7523.2%
Aldosivi −0.527.6%
Aldosivi −0.2535.9%
Aldosivi draw no bet (0.0)44.3%
Aldosivi +0.2552.7%
Aldosivi +0.561.1%
Aldosivi +0.7566.6%
Aldosivi +1.072.1%
Aldosivi +1.583.2%
Aldosivi +2.088.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Aldosivi win3.63
Draw2.98
Atl Tucuman win2.57
Over 2.53.02
Under 2.51.49
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Aldosivi wins by more than 1 goals10%
Atl Tucuman wins by more than 1 goals17%