Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Argentina
91%
Draw
6%
Bolivia
3%
Actual result: Argentina 4 – 0 Bolivia · Argentina winJarvis gave this outcome: 91% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Argentina, negative favours Bolivia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Argentina - Bolivia)+2.89
Expected total goals3.89
Expected goals Argentina / Bolivia3.39 / 0.50
Both teams to score (yes / no)37.3% / 62.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 89.3%
Over 2.5 goals 74.5%
Over 3.5 goals 54.4%
First half
First-half result (Argentina / draw / Bolivia)72.2% / 21.5% / 6.3%
A goal in the first half83.8%
Two or more in the first half51.0%
Half-time then full-time
Argentina lead at half-time then Argentina win70.1%
Level at half-time then Argentina win16.7%
Level at half-time then draw3.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Argentina's side
Argentina −2.065.3%
Argentina −1.7570.3%
Argentina −1.575.3%
Argentina −1.2579.2%
Argentina −1.083.0%
Argentina −0.7586.9%
Argentina −0.590.7%
Argentina −0.2592.2%
Argentina draw no bet (0.0)93.7%
Argentina +0.2595.2%
Argentina +0.596.6%
Argentina +0.7597.3%
Argentina +1.098.1%
Argentina +1.599.5%
Argentina +2.099.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Argentina win1.10
Draw16.95
Bolivia win29.71
Over 2.51.34
Under 2.53.92
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Argentina wins by more than 1 goals75%
Bolivia wins by more than 1 goals1%