Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Argentina
95%
Draw
3%
Burkina Faso
1%
Actual result: Argentina 7 – 0 Burkina Faso · Argentina winJarvis gave this outcome: 95% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Argentina, negative favours Burkina Faso) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Argentina - Burkina Faso)+3.51
Expected total goals4.16
Expected goals Argentina / Burkina Faso3.83 / 0.33
Both teams to score (yes / no)26.9% / 73.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 91.6%
Over 2.5 goals 78.5%
Over 3.5 goals 59.7%
First half
First-half result (Argentina / draw / Burkina Faso)78.5% / 18.0% / 3.5%
A goal in the first half85.4%
Two or more in the first half55.1%
Half-time then full-time
Argentina lead at half-time then Argentina win77.5%
Level at half-time then Argentina win15.1%
Level at half-time then draw2.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Argentina's side
Argentina −2.075.6%
Argentina −1.7579.9%
Argentina −1.584.2%
Argentina −1.2586.9%
Argentina −1.089.6%
Argentina −0.7592.4%
Argentina −0.595.1%
Argentina −0.2596.0%
Argentina draw no bet (0.0)96.9%
Argentina +0.2597.7%
Argentina +0.598.6%
Argentina +0.7598.9%
Argentina +1.099.2%
Argentina +1.599.9%
Argentina +2.099.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Argentina win1.05
Draw29.11
Burkina Faso win69.91
Over 2.51.27
Under 2.54.64
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Argentina wins by more than 1 goals84%
Burkina Faso wins by more than 1 goals0%