Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Arouca
36%
Draw
34%
Santa Clara
31%
Actual result: Arouca 1 – 2 Santa Clara · Santa Clara winJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Arouca, negative favours Santa Clara) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Arouca - Santa Clara)+0.10
Expected total goals2.16
Expected goals Arouca / Santa Clara1.13 / 1.03
Both teams to score (yes / no)45.7% / 54.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 65.7%
Over 2.5 goals 36.7%
Over 3.5 goals 17.3%
First half
First-half result (Arouca / draw / Santa Clara)26.5% / 50.1% / 23.4%
A goal in the first half60.8%
Two or more in the first half26.9%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw22.9%
Arouca lead at half-time then Arouca win21.0%
Santa Clara lead at half-time then Santa Clara win17.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Arouca's side
Arouca −2.010.3%
Arouca −1.7513.0%
Arouca −1.515.6%
Arouca −1.2520.7%
Arouca −1.025.7%
Arouca −0.7530.7%
Arouca −0.535.7%
Arouca −0.2544.2%
Arouca draw no bet (0.0)52.6%
Arouca +0.2561.0%
Arouca +0.569.4%
Arouca +0.7574.0%
Arouca +1.078.5%
Arouca +1.587.5%
Arouca +2.092.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Arouca win2.80
Draw2.97
Santa Clara win3.27
Over 2.52.73
Under 2.51.58
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Arouca wins by more than 1 goals16%
Santa Clara wins by more than 1 goals12%