Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Arsenal (W)
95%
Draw
4%
Koge (W)
1%
Actual result: Arsenal (W) 1 – 0 Koge (W) · Arsenal (W) winJarvis gave this outcome: 95% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Arsenal (W), negative favours Koge (W)) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Arsenal (W) - Koge (W))+3.61
Expected total goals4.43
Expected goals Arsenal (W) / Koge (W)4.02 / 0.41
Both teams to score (yes / no)33.2% / 66.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 93.6%
Over 2.5 goals 81.9%
Over 3.5 goals 64.6%
First half
First-half result (Arsenal (W) / draw / Koge (W))78.1% / 18.6% / 3.2%
A goal in the first half86.4%
Two or more in the first half59.3%
Half-time then full-time
Arsenal (W) lead at half-time then Arsenal (W) win77.2%
Level at half-time then Arsenal (W) win15.6%
Level at half-time then draw2.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Arsenal (W)'s side
Arsenal (W) −2.076.5%
Arsenal (W) −1.7580.6%
Arsenal (W) −1.584.6%
Arsenal (W) −1.2587.1%
Arsenal (W) −1.089.6%
Arsenal (W) −0.7592.1%
Arsenal (W) −0.594.6%
Arsenal (W) −0.2595.7%
Arsenal (W) draw no bet (0.0)96.7%
Arsenal (W) +0.2597.7%
Arsenal (W) +0.598.8%
Arsenal (W) +0.7599.0%
Arsenal (W) +1.099.3%
Arsenal (W) +1.599.8%
Arsenal (W) +2.099.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Arsenal (W) win1.06
Draw23.94
Koge (W) win82.81
Over 2.51.22
Under 2.55.51
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Arsenal (W) wins by more than 1 goals84%
Koge (W) wins by more than 1 goals0%