Spanish La Liga
Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid prediction
3 – 0
Full-timeOutcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Athletic Bilbao
31%
Draw
30%
Atletico Madrid
39%
Actual result: Athletic Bilbao 3 – 0 Atletico Madrid · Athletic Bilbao winJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Athletic Bilbao, negative favours Atletico Madrid) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Athletic Bilbao - Atletico Madrid)-0.18
Expected total goals2.64
Expected goals Athletic Bilbao / Atletico Madrid1.23 / 1.41
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.6% / 44.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.1%
Over 2.5 goals 49.1%
Over 3.5 goals 27.2%
First half
First-half result (Athletic Bilbao / draw / Atletico Madrid)24.5% / 45.8% / 29.6%
A goal in the first half67.7%
Two or more in the first half35.1%
Half-time then full-time
Atletico Madrid lead at half-time then Atletico Madrid win23.5%
Level at half-time then draw19.1%
Athletic Bilbao lead at half-time then Athletic Bilbao win18.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Athletic Bilbao's side
Athletic Bilbao −2.09.3%
Athletic Bilbao −1.7511.6%
Athletic Bilbao −1.513.9%
Athletic Bilbao −1.2518.1%
Athletic Bilbao −1.022.3%
Athletic Bilbao −0.7526.5%
Athletic Bilbao −0.530.7%
Athletic Bilbao −0.2538.3%
Athletic Bilbao draw no bet (0.0)45.9%
Athletic Bilbao +0.2553.5%
Athletic Bilbao +0.561.0%
Athletic Bilbao +0.7565.9%
Athletic Bilbao +1.070.8%
Athletic Bilbao +1.580.6%
Athletic Bilbao +2.086.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Athletic Bilbao win3.25
Draw3.30
Atletico Madrid win2.57
Over 2.52.04
Under 2.51.97
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Athletic Bilbao wins by more than 1 goals14%
Atletico Madrid wins by more than 1 goals19%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%
Cards
Expected total cards3.8
2.5+ cards in the match53%