Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Athletic Bilbao
69%
Draw
20%
Elche
11%
Actual result: Athletic Bilbao 1 – 1 Elche · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 20%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Athletic Bilbao, negative favours Elche) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Athletic Bilbao - Elche)+1.36
Expected total goals2.76
Expected goals Athletic Bilbao / Elche2.06 / 0.70
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.3% / 55.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.5%
Over 2.5 goals 52.2%
Over 3.5 goals 30.0%
First half
First-half result (Athletic Bilbao / draw / Elche)49.6% / 38.3% / 12.1%
A goal in the first half71.0%
Two or more in the first half35.5%
Half-time then full-time
Athletic Bilbao lead at half-time then Athletic Bilbao win45.5%
Level at half-time then Athletic Bilbao win20.9%
Level at half-time then draw12.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Athletic Bilbao's side
Athletic Bilbao −2.033.5%
Athletic Bilbao −1.7538.8%
Athletic Bilbao −1.544.1%
Athletic Bilbao −1.2550.3%
Athletic Bilbao −1.056.5%
Athletic Bilbao −0.7562.7%
Athletic Bilbao −0.568.9%
Athletic Bilbao −0.2573.8%
Athletic Bilbao draw no bet (0.0)78.7%
Athletic Bilbao +0.2583.7%
Athletic Bilbao +0.588.6%
Athletic Bilbao +0.7590.7%
Athletic Bilbao +1.092.8%
Athletic Bilbao +1.596.9%
Athletic Bilbao +2.098.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Athletic Bilbao win1.45
Draw5.07
Elche win8.76
Over 2.51.92
Under 2.52.09
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Athletic Bilbao wins by more than 1 goals44%
Elche wins by more than 1 goals3%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match50%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%