Brazilian Serie A
Atletico MG vs Red Bull Bragantino prediction
1 – 0
Full-timeOutcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Atletico MG
45%
Draw
29%
Red Bull Bragantino
26%
Actual result: Atletico MG 1 – 0 Red Bull Bragantino · Atletico MG winJarvis gave this outcome: 45% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Atletico MG, negative favours Red Bull Bragantino) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Atletico MG - Red Bull Bragantino)+0.42
Expected total goals2.64
Expected goals Atletico MG / Red Bull Bragantino1.53 / 1.11
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.0% / 46.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 goals 49.1%
Over 3.5 goals 27.2%
First half
First-half result (Atletico MG / draw / Red Bull Bragantino)33.7% / 44.6% / 21.7%
A goal in the first half68.1%
Two or more in the first half34.6%
Half-time then full-time
Atletico MG lead at half-time then Atletico MG win27.7%
Level at half-time then draw17.9%
Level at half-time then Atletico MG win16.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Atletico MG's side
Atletico MG −2.016.6%
Atletico MG −1.7520.1%
Atletico MG −1.523.6%
Atletico MG −1.2529.1%
Atletico MG −1.034.5%
Atletico MG −0.7539.9%
Atletico MG −0.545.3%
Atletico MG −0.2552.5%
Atletico MG draw no bet (0.0)59.6%
Atletico MG +0.2566.8%
Atletico MG +0.573.9%
Atletico MG +0.7577.7%
Atletico MG +1.081.6%
Atletico MG +1.589.3%
Atletico MG +2.093.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Atletico MG win2.21
Draw3.50
Red Bull Bragantino win3.83
Over 2.52.04
Under 2.51.96
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Atletico MG wins by more than 1 goals24%
Red Bull Bragantino wins by more than 1 goals11%