Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Australia
8%
Draw
15%
Brazil
77%
Actual result: Australia 1 – 1 Brazil · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 15%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Australia, negative favours Brazil) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Australia - Brazil)-1.80
Expected total goals3.20
Expected goals Australia / Brazil0.70 / 2.50
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.4% / 53.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.0%
Over 2.5 goals 62.1%
Over 3.5 goals 39.8%
First half
First-half result (Australia / draw / Brazil)10.3% / 33.0% / 56.7%
A goal in the first half76.3%
Two or more in the first half42.3%
Half-time then full-time
Brazil lead at half-time then Brazil win53.2%
Level at half-time then Brazil win20.5%
Level at half-time then draw9.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Australia's side
Australia −2.01.3%
Australia −1.751.7%
Australia −1.52.2%
Australia −1.253.7%
Australia −1.05.2%
Australia −0.756.8%
Australia −0.58.3%
Australia −0.2512.1%
Australia draw no bet (0.0)15.9%
Australia +0.2519.7%
Australia +0.523.4%
Australia +0.7528.9%
Australia +1.034.5%
Australia +1.545.5%
Australia +2.056.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Australia win12.03
Draw6.62
Brazil win1.31
Over 2.51.61
Under 2.52.64
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Australia wins by more than 1 goals2%
Brazil wins by more than 1 goals54%