Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Austria
59%
Draw
25%
Kosovo
16%
Actual result: Austria 3 – 1 Kosovo · Austria winJarvis gave this outcome: 59% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Austria, negative favours Kosovo) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Austria - Kosovo)+0.93
Expected total goals2.49
Expected goals Austria / Kosovo1.71 / 0.78
Both teams to score (yes / no)45.1% / 54.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.7%
Over 2.5 goals 45.5%
Over 3.5 goals 24.1%
First half
First-half result (Austria / draw / Kosovo)42.0% / 42.8% / 15.2%
A goal in the first half67.0%
Two or more in the first half31.3%
Half-time then full-time
Austria lead at half-time then Austria win37.1%
Level at half-time then Austria win19.9%
Level at half-time then draw16.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Austria's side
Austria −2.024.3%
Austria −1.7528.9%
Austria −1.533.5%
Austria −1.2539.9%
Austria −1.046.2%
Austria −0.7552.6%
Austria −0.558.9%
Austria −0.2565.1%
Austria draw no bet (0.0)71.3%
Austria +0.2577.4%
Austria +0.583.6%
Austria +0.7586.5%
Austria +1.089.3%
Austria +1.595.0%
Austria +2.096.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Austria win1.70
Draw4.05
Kosovo win6.10
Over 2.52.20
Under 2.51.83
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Austria wins by more than 1 goals33%
Kosovo wins by more than 1 goals5%
Corners
Expected total corners8.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match39%