Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
85%
Draw
10%
Willem II
6%
Actual result: AZ Alkmaar 1 – 1 Willem II · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 10%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours AZ Alkmaar, negative favours Willem II) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (AZ Alkmaar - Willem II)+2.45
Expected total goals3.94
Expected goals AZ Alkmaar / Willem II3.20 / 0.75
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.2% / 49.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 90.1%
Over 2.5 goals 75.4%
Over 3.5 goals 55.5%
First half
First-half result (AZ Alkmaar / draw / Willem II)65.8% / 25.2% / 9.0%
A goal in the first half83.6%
Two or more in the first half52.4%
Half-time then full-time
AZ Alkmaar lead at half-time then AZ Alkmaar win62.9%
Level at half-time then AZ Alkmaar win17.9%
Level at half-time then draw5.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from AZ Alkmaar's side
AZ Alkmaar −2.056.9%
AZ Alkmaar −1.7562.0%
AZ Alkmaar −1.567.1%
AZ Alkmaar −1.2571.5%
AZ Alkmaar −1.075.9%
AZ Alkmaar −0.7580.3%
AZ Alkmaar −0.584.6%
AZ Alkmaar −0.2587.1%
AZ Alkmaar draw no bet (0.0)89.5%
AZ Alkmaar +0.2591.9%
AZ Alkmaar +0.594.3%
AZ Alkmaar +0.7595.3%
AZ Alkmaar +1.096.4%
AZ Alkmaar +1.598.6%
AZ Alkmaar +2.099.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
AZ Alkmaar win1.18
Draw10.40
Willem II win17.44
Over 2.51.33
Under 2.54.06
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
AZ Alkmaar wins by more than 1 goals67%
Willem II wins by more than 1 goals1%