Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Azerbaijan
85%
Draw
10%
Liechtenstein
4%
Actual result: Azerbaijan 0 – 0 Liechtenstein · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 10%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Azerbaijan, negative favours Liechtenstein) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Azerbaijan - Liechtenstein)+2.23
Expected total goals3.02
Expected goals Azerbaijan / Liechtenstein2.62 / 0.39
Both teams to score (yes / no)29.6% / 70.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.7%
Over 2.5 goals 58.0%
Over 3.5 goals 35.6%
First half
First-half result (Azerbaijan / draw / Liechtenstein)63.7% / 30.1% / 6.2%
A goal in the first half74.9%
Two or more in the first half38.6%
Half-time then full-time
Azerbaijan lead at half-time then Azerbaijan win61.5%
Level at half-time then Azerbaijan win21.0%
Level at half-time then draw7.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Azerbaijan's side
Azerbaijan −2.052.4%
Azerbaijan −1.7558.2%
Azerbaijan −1.564.1%
Azerbaijan −1.2569.4%
Azerbaijan −1.074.8%
Azerbaijan −0.7580.1%
Azerbaijan −0.585.5%
Azerbaijan −0.2588.0%
Azerbaijan draw no bet (0.0)90.6%
Azerbaijan +0.2593.1%
Azerbaijan +0.595.6%
Azerbaijan +0.7596.6%
Azerbaijan +1.097.5%
Azerbaijan +1.599.4%
Azerbaijan +2.099.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Azerbaijan win1.17
Draw9.83
Liechtenstein win22.97
Over 2.51.72
Under 2.52.38
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Azerbaijan wins by more than 1 goals64%
Liechtenstein wins by more than 1 goals1%
Corners
Expected total corners9.1
6.5+ corners in the match56%
Cards
Expected total cards3.0
2.5+ cards in the match57%