Brazilian Serie A

Bahia vs Chapecoense prediction

2 – 0

Full-time

Match summary

Bahia vs Chapecoense (Serie A), 18/07/2026, finished 2-0: Bahia won. Before the match Jarvis gave Bahia 68%, the draw 19% and Chapecoense 12%; the actual result had a 68% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 2-0. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 3.0.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Bahia

68%

Draw

19%

Chapecoense

12%

Actual result: Bahia 2 – 0 Chapecoense · Bahia winJarvis gave this outcome: 68% ✓

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Bahia, negative favours Chapecoense) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Bahia - Chapecoense)+1.36

Expected total goals2.95

Expected goals Bahia / Chapecoense2.15 / 0.80

Both teams to score (yes / no)48.8% / 51.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 79.6%

Over 2.5 goals 56.6%

Over 3.5 goals 34.2%

First half

First-half result (Bahia / draw / Chapecoense)49.8% / 37.0% / 13.2%

A goal in the first half73.3%

Two or more in the first half38.6%

Half-time then full-time

Bahia lead at half-time then Bahia win45.4%

Level at half-time then Bahia win20.2%

Level at half-time then draw11.8%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Bahia's side

Bahia −2.034.1%

Bahia −1.7539.3%

Bahia −1.544.4%

Bahia −1.2550.4%

Bahia −1.056.4%

Bahia −0.7562.4%

Bahia −0.568.3%

Bahia −0.2573.2%

Bahia draw no bet (0.0)78.0%

Bahia +0.2582.8%

Bahia +0.587.7%

Bahia +0.7589.8%

Bahia +1.092.0%

Bahia +1.596.4%

Bahia +2.097.8%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Bahia win1.46

Draw5.17

Chapecoense win8.12

Over 2.51.77

Under 2.52.30

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Bahia wins by more than 1 goals44%

Chapecoense wins by more than 1 goals4%

Match summary

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match