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German Bundesliga

Werder Bremen vs Paderborn prediction

Werder Bremen
20:30, 17/10
GMT+7
Kicking off soon
Paderborn

Quick preview

Werder Bremen meet Paderborn in the Bundesliga, kick-off 20:30 on 17/10 (GMT+7). In the table, Werder Bremen are 7th (8 points from 5 games) and Paderborn are 15th (4 points from 5 games). Jarvis gives Werder Bremen a 54% chance to win, 24% for a draw and 22% for Paderborn; the score Jarvis predicts is 2-1. Jarvis expects 3.1 goals in the match: both teams score with 59%, 3 or more goals with 59%.

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Outcome probability

Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Werder Bremen
54%
Draw
24%
Paderborn
22%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Werder Bremen, negative favours Paderborn) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Werder Bremen - Paderborn)+0.76
Expected total goals3.07
Expected goals Werder Bremen / Paderborn1.92 / 1.16
Both teams to score (yes / no)59.4% / 40.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.1%
Over 2.5 goals 59.3%
Over 3.5 goals 36.9%
First half
First-half result (Werder Bremen / draw / Paderborn)40.4% / 39.7% / 19.8%
A goal in the first half73.9%
Two or more in the first half41.3%
Half-time then full-time
Werder Bremen lead at half-time then Werder Bremen win34.4%
Level at half-time then Werder Bremen win17.5%
Level at half-time then draw14.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Werder Bremen's side
Werder Bremen −2.023.6%
Werder Bremen −1.7527.8%
Werder Bremen −1.532.0%
Werder Bremen −1.2537.6%
Werder Bremen −1.043.1%
Werder Bremen −0.7548.7%
Werder Bremen −0.554.2%
Werder Bremen −0.2560.2%
Werder Bremen draw no bet (0.0)66.2%
Werder Bremen +0.2572.2%
Werder Bremen +0.578.2%
Werder Bremen +0.7581.5%
Werder Bremen +1.084.7%
Werder Bremen +1.591.2%
Werder Bremen +2.094.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)
Werder Bremen win1.85
Draw4.16
Paderborn win4.60
Over 2.51.69
Under 2.52.46

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin
Werder Bremen wins by more than 1 goals32%
Paderborn wins by more than 1 goals9%
Corners
Expected total corners9.7
6.5+ corners in the match51%

Probability trajectory

Werder Bremen vs Paderborn injury report and team news

Werder Bremen
  • F. AguOut · Calf Injury
  • S. AlveroOut · Calf Injury
  • S. LynenOut · Hip Injury
  • S. MusahOut · Muscle Injury
  • M. N'DiayeOut · Groin Injury
  • J. NjinmahOut · Thigh Injury
  • J. StageOut · Muscle Injury
  • K. ToppOut · Knee Injury
Paderborn
  • N. Awortwie-GrantOut · Knee Injury
  • T. GayretOut · Knee Injury
  • S. KlaasOut · Muscle Injury

Werder Bremen vs Paderborn team form

Werder BremenDLWDW
Last 5 matches
09/10/2026Borussia Dortmund (away)2–2
02/10/2026Twente (away)0–7
19/09/2026FC Augsburg (home)3–2
12/09/20261. FC Koln (away)1–1
05/09/2026RB Leipzig (home)3–1
PaderbornLWWLL
Last 5 matches
10/10/2026VfB Stuttgart (home)0–2
30/09/2026DC United (away)1–0
20/09/20261899 Hoffenheim (home)3–1
12/09/2026Borussia Dortmund (away)0–3
05/09/2026SC Freiburg (home)0–1

Werder Bremen vs Paderborn head to head (H2H)

Head to head record, last 9 meetings: Werder Bremen won 4, drew 3, lost 2. Werder Bremen scored 21 and conceded 15 goals.

DateHomeScoreAway
08/08/2026Werder Bremen2–2SC Paderborn 07
30/10/2024SC Paderborn 070–1Werder Bremen
19/10/2022SC Paderborn 072–2Werder Bremen
22/01/2022SC Paderborn 073–4Werder Bremen
15/08/2021Werder Bremen1–4SC Paderborn 07
13/06/2020SC Paderborn 071–5Werder Bremen
08/12/2019Werder Bremen0–1SC Paderborn 07
26/04/2015SC Paderborn 072–2Werder Bremen
29/11/2014Werder Bremen4–0SC Paderborn 07

Match information

Referee
Robert Schroder
Venue
Weser-Stadion, Bremen
Round
6

Next fixtures of both teams

Werder Bremen
  • vs Mainz (away)Sat 24/10, 20:30 GMT+7 · Bundesliga 26-27
  • vs TSG HoffenheimSat 31/10, 21:30 GMT+7 · Bundesliga 26-27
Paderborn
  • vs Hamburg SVSat 24/10, 20:30 GMT+7 · Bundesliga 26-27
  • vs Borussia Monchengladbach (away)Sat 31/10, 21:30 GMT+7 · Bundesliga 26-27

Other matches on 17/10 (GMT+7)

The three numbers are Jarvis probabilities: home win, draw, away win. Finished matches show the score.

Bundesliga table, latest

#TeamPGDPts
1SC Freiburg5+1013
2Borussia Dortmund5+713
3Bayern Munich5+1211
...
6FC Augsburg5+58
7Werder Bremen508
8Eintracht Frankfurt6-68
...
14Schalke 045-25
15SC Paderborn 075-44
161. FC Union Berlin5-124

See the full Bundesliga table