Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Basaksehir
55%
Draw
25%
Genclerbirligi
21%
Actual result: Basaksehir 4 – 0 Genclerbirligi · Basaksehir winJarvis gave this outcome: 55% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Basaksehir, negative favours Genclerbirligi) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Basaksehir - Genclerbirligi)+0.80
Expected total goals3.08
Expected goals Basaksehir / Genclerbirligi1.94 / 1.14
Both teams to score (yes / no)59.6% / 40.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.6%
Over 2.5 goals 59.4%
Over 3.5 goals 37.0%
First half
First-half result (Basaksehir / draw / Genclerbirligi)40.5% / 40.6% / 18.9%
A goal in the first half73.4%
Two or more in the first half41.8%
Half-time then full-time
Basaksehir lead at half-time then Basaksehir win34.9%
Level at half-time then Basaksehir win17.9%
Level at half-time then draw14.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Basaksehir's side
Basaksehir −2.024.3%
Basaksehir −1.7528.6%
Basaksehir −1.532.9%
Basaksehir −1.2538.3%
Basaksehir −1.043.8%
Basaksehir −0.7549.2%
Basaksehir −0.554.7%
Basaksehir −0.2560.8%
Basaksehir draw no bet (0.0)67.0%
Basaksehir +0.2573.2%
Basaksehir +0.579.4%
Basaksehir +0.7582.4%
Basaksehir +1.085.5%
Basaksehir +1.591.6%
Basaksehir +2.094.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Basaksehir win1.83
Draw4.04
Genclerbirligi win4.85
Over 2.51.68
Under 2.52.46
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Basaksehir wins by more than 1 goals33%
Genclerbirligi wins by more than 1 goals8%