Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Belarus
21%
Draw
31%
Finland
48%
Actual result: Belarus 1 – 0 Finland · Belarus winJarvis gave this outcome: 21%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Belarus, negative favours Finland) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Belarus - Finland)-0.54
Expected total goals2.11
Expected goals Belarus / Finland0.78 / 1.33
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.3% / 58.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 63.7%
Over 2.5 goals 35.3%
Over 3.5 goals 16.3%
First half
First-half result (Belarus / draw / Finland)17.1% / 49.1% / 33.8%
A goal in the first half60.4%
Two or more in the first half25.5%
Half-time then full-time
Finland lead at half-time then Finland win29.0%
Level at half-time then draw21.7%
Level at half-time then Finland win18.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Belarus's side
Belarus −2.04.1%
Belarus −1.755.4%
Belarus −1.56.7%
Belarus −1.2510.2%
Belarus −1.013.7%
Belarus −0.7517.2%
Belarus −0.520.7%
Belarus −0.2528.5%
Belarus draw no bet (0.0)36.2%
Belarus +0.2544.0%
Belarus +0.551.8%
Belarus +0.7558.0%
Belarus +1.064.1%
Belarus +1.576.5%
Belarus +2.083.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Belarus win4.84
Draw3.21
Finland win2.08
Over 2.52.83
Under 2.51.55
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Belarus wins by more than 1 goals7%
Finland wins by more than 1 goals24%
Corners
Expected total corners9.3
6.5+ corners in the match45%
Cards
Expected total cards5.1
2.5+ cards in the match58%