Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Belarus
92%
Draw
6%
San Marino
2%
Actual result: Belarus 4 – 0 San Marino · Belarus winJarvis gave this outcome: 92% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Belarus, negative favours San Marino) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Belarus - San Marino)+2.72
Expected total goals3.13
Expected goals Belarus / San Marino2.93 / 0.20
Both teams to score (yes / no)16.8% / 83.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.4%
Over 2.5 goals 60.5%
Over 3.5 goals 38.2%
First half
First-half result (Belarus / draw / San Marino)70.6% / 26.3% / 3.1%
A goal in the first half76.1%
Two or more in the first half40.5%
Half-time then full-time
Belarus lead at half-time then Belarus win69.6%
Level at half-time then Belarus win20.3%
Level at half-time then draw5.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Belarus's side
Belarus −2.062.9%
Belarus −1.7568.6%
Belarus −1.574.3%
Belarus −1.2578.7%
Belarus −1.083.1%
Belarus −0.7587.5%
Belarus −0.591.8%
Belarus −0.2593.4%
Belarus draw no bet (0.0)95.0%
Belarus +0.2596.6%
Belarus +0.598.2%
Belarus +0.7598.6%
Belarus +1.099.0%
Belarus +1.599.9%
Belarus +2.099.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Belarus win1.09
Draw15.75
San Marino win55.12
Over 2.51.65
Under 2.52.53
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Belarus wins by more than 1 goals74%
San Marino wins by more than 1 goals0%