Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Belgium
62%
Draw
21%
Turkey
17%
Actual result: Belgium 3 – 0 Turkey · Belgium winJarvis gave this outcome: 62% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Belgium, negative favours Turkey) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Belgium - Turkey)+1.12
Expected total goals3.33
Expected goals Belgium / Turkey2.23 / 1.11
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.5% / 39.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 85.3%
Over 2.5 goals 64.7%
Over 3.5 goals 42.7%
First half
First-half result (Belgium / draw / Turkey)46.1% / 36.8% / 17.0%
A goal in the first half76.7%
Two or more in the first half45.2%
Half-time then full-time
Belgium lead at half-time then Belgium win40.7%
Level at half-time then Belgium win18.5%
Level at half-time then draw11.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Belgium's side
Belgium −2.030.6%
Belgium −1.7535.3%
Belgium −1.540.0%
Belgium −1.2545.5%
Belgium −1.050.9%
Belgium −0.7556.4%
Belgium −0.561.9%
Belgium −0.2567.2%
Belgium draw no bet (0.0)72.4%
Belgium +0.2577.7%
Belgium +0.582.9%
Belgium +0.7585.6%
Belgium +1.088.2%
Belgium +1.593.5%
Belgium +2.095.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Belgium win1.62
Draw4.76
Turkey win5.85
Over 2.51.54
Under 2.52.84
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Belgium wins by more than 1 goals40%
Turkey wins by more than 1 goals7%
Corners
Expected total corners9.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%
Cards
Expected total cards3.9
2.5+ cards in the match55%