Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Benfica
87%
Draw
8%
Gil Vicente
4%
Actual result: Benfica 3 – 1 Gil Vicente · Benfica winJarvis gave this outcome: 87% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Benfica, negative favours Gil Vicente) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Benfica - Gil Vicente)+2.52
Expected total goals3.55
Expected goals Benfica / Gil Vicente3.03 / 0.51
Both teams to score (yes / no)37.7% / 62.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.3%
Over 2.5 goals 68.8%
Over 3.5 goals 47.4%
First half
First-half result (Benfica / draw / Gil Vicente)67.5% / 25.5% / 6.9%
A goal in the first half80.6%
Two or more in the first half46.6%
Half-time then full-time
Benfica lead at half-time then Benfica win65.2%
Level at half-time then Benfica win18.7%
Level at half-time then draw5.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Benfica's side
Benfica −2.058.5%
Benfica −1.7563.9%
Benfica −1.569.3%
Benfica −1.2573.8%
Benfica −1.078.3%
Benfica −0.7582.9%
Benfica −0.587.4%
Benfica −0.2589.5%
Benfica draw no bet (0.0)91.6%
Benfica +0.2593.6%
Benfica +0.595.7%
Benfica +0.7596.6%
Benfica +1.097.5%
Benfica +1.599.3%
Benfica +2.099.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Benfica win1.14
Draw12.04
Gil Vicente win23.36
Over 2.51.45
Under 2.53.20
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Benfica wins by more than 1 goals69%
Gil Vicente wins by more than 1 goals1%