Outcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Benfica
81%
Draw
13%
Guimaraes
6%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Benfica, negative favours Guimaraes) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Benfica - Guimaraes)+2.06
Expected total goals3.26
Expected goals Benfica / Guimaraes2.66 / 0.60
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.8% / 58.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.6%
Over 2.5 goals 63.2%
Over 3.5 goals 41.0%
First half
First-half result (Benfica / draw / Guimaraes)60.6% / 31.1% / 8.3%
A goal in the first half76.9%
Two or more in the first half43.0%
Half-time then full-time
Benfica lead at half-time then Benfica win57.7%
Level at half-time then Benfica win20.6%
Level at half-time then draw8.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Benfica's side
Benfica −2.049.0%
Benfica −1.7554.6%
Benfica −1.560.2%
Benfica −1.2565.4%
Benfica −1.070.6%
Benfica −0.7575.9%
Benfica −0.581.1%
Benfica −0.2584.3%
Benfica draw no bet (0.0)87.5%
Benfica +0.2590.7%
Benfica +0.593.9%
Benfica +0.7595.1%
Benfica +1.096.3%
Benfica +1.598.6%
Benfica +2.099.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Benfica win1.23
Draw7.80
Guimaraes win16.39
Over 2.51.58
Under 2.52.72
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Benfica wins by more than 1 goals60%
Guimaraes wins by more than 1 goals1%