Outcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Como
37%
Draw
28%
Roma
35%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Como, negative favours Roma) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Como - Roma)+0.04
Expected total goals2.93
Expected goals Como / Roma1.49 / 1.44
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.9% / 39.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.8%
Over 2.5 goals 56.2%
Over 3.5 goals 33.8%
First half
First-half result (Como / draw / Roma)29.0% / 43.2% / 27.8%
A goal in the first half71.5%
Two or more in the first half39.8%
Half-time then full-time
Como lead at half-time then Como win22.2%
Roma lead at half-time then Roma win20.9%
Level at half-time then draw16.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Como's side
Como −2.012.9%
Como −1.7515.7%
Como −1.518.6%
Como −1.2523.2%
Como −1.027.8%
Como −0.7532.4%
Como −0.537.0%
Como −0.2544.0%
Como draw no bet (0.0)51.0%
Como +0.2558.0%
Como +0.565.0%
Como +0.7569.5%
Como +1.073.9%
Como +1.582.8%
Como +2.088.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Como win2.71
Draw3.56
Roma win2.86
Over 2.51.78
Under 2.52.28
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Como wins by more than 1 goals19%
Roma wins by more than 1 goals17%
Corners
Expected total corners9.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%